2023 Holiday Shopping Season Predictions and Trends

Though the official start of the holiday shopping is weeks away, business owners and brands are already beginning to develop and launch their holiday marketing campaigns! And with good reason, as eMarketer is forecasting overall 2023 holiday season retail spending to increase 4.5% to $1.3 trillion, with e-commerce accounting for an estimated 20% of sales and contributing 48.5% of incremental spending gains!

To help online businesses and brands shine this holiday season, BigCommerce recently unveiled their latest predictions and strategies, complete with expert advice to help you make the most of this holiday shopping season.

Prediction: “Holiday shopping is beginning earlier than ever!”

2022 proved the holiday shopping season is no longer confined to November and December as major retailers launched Black Friday and Cyber Monday promotions as early as October and extended holiday sales and promotions through the end of Q4.

Early holiday shopping was so prevalent that a survey by Google found, “as of mid-October, holiday shoppers globally had on average 21% of their holiday shopping complete.” Retailers and shoppers seem are expected to follow the same pattern this year, with early holiday shopping forecasted to be the norm in the years to come.

To capitalize on both the early shopping trend and expanded holiday sales season, retailers must position their businesses and brands to capture attention early and adopt an “always on” marketing approach.

“When I think about planning for the holiday season, it’s really about doing testing up to a year in advance,” said Rob Rosenthal, Chief Revenue Officer at Bloomreach. “Why wait until six months out? Go a year out to test it. There’s no reason not to be ready anymore.”

Prediction: “Shoppers are eager to get back in-person!”

After three years of online shopping dominating the holiday sales season, thanks to the ongoing pandemic, customers are excited about in-store shopping experiences.  

According to eMarketer, “Brick-and-mortar holiday spending reached $1 trillion for the first time in 2022 — a 3.9% gain from 2021. Thanksgiving weekend foot traffic rebounded from 2021, with a 17% increase YoY over the five-day period. Even more notably, Black Friday saw a double-digit increase in traffic to 72.9 million shoppers — proving that brick-and-mortar shopping is back in business.”

Retailers, businesses, and brands can adapt to this shift by embracing an omnichannel strategy that seamlessly bridges the gap between online and offline channels. Some of the most popular methods include implementing programs such as Buy Online, Pickup in Store (BOPIS), Buy Online, Return in Store (BORIS), and Reserve Online, Pickup in Store (ROPIS).

“It’s not just a brick-and-mortar experience becoming more digital, but the digital experience is becoming more of a physical thing as well,” explained Chris Collier, Senior Software Engineer at Google.

Prediction: “Economic uncertainty means cautious spending.”

As a result of general economic uncertainty, data shows many shoppers may be tightening their holiday budgets.

While inflation is down year-over-year, CNBC’s Supply Chain Survey found that 71% of retailers expect consumers to cut back on spending in response to inflation, and, in response, 43% of retailers plan to order less inventory than last year. Additional reports show that Wall Street expects a recession to finally hit the U.S. in the next 12 months, possibly as early as November (which just so happens to be the official start of the holiday shopping season!). 

As a result, holiday shoppers will be looking to save wherever they can! And while it may mean sacrificing some margin and profitability, generous sales and discounts may be crucial to drive sales and meet customer needs. 

Trend: “Provide hassle-free returns to build brand loyalty!”

While by no means a new trend, hassle-free returns continue to drive sales!

The holidays offer a prime opportunity for brands to reach new customers and build loyalty from existing ones by offering favorable purchase experiences and creating memorable post-purchase experiences. A simple and easy returns experience is one of the best ways to accomplish this. 

Last holiday season, an estimated 10% – 16% of e-commerce orders in the U.S. were returned each week, from November through mid-January. A study by FedEx also revealed that 98% of shoppers would be willing to order from a brand again if it offered fast and convenient returns, and 56% are willing to pay for hassle-free returns.

While a high number of returns may not sound ideal, a simple, easy returns process allows retailers to prove to customers that you care about them and their repeat business.

Rather than focusing all your energy on the purchase experience, make sure you’re offering a generous return window and an intuitive returns experience.

Final Thoughts

While no one knows exactly how the 2023 holiday season will unfold, ensuring customers are front and center in your e-commerce strategy is always a best practice! From offering deals and discounts to enhancing the omnichannel experience, finding ways to put your customer first is key to standing out this holiday season.